TRADE POLICY 2008-09 SPEECH
Ladies and Gentlemen Assalam o Alaikum
It is a privilege for me to present before you the trade policy for the year 2008-09; the first by a democratic government after a period of nine years. This is your government and it carries the hopes and aspirations of all of you who have given us a very important mandate. Even though your Government has been in office for less than 4 months, our endeavor has been to draw up a trade policy that has a new direction and vision, and will have an impact on the lives of those who are the most needy. In the recently announced Budget for 2008-09 and in this Trade Policy, the Government’s focus is to take the benefits of development to the common man. Our aim is to encourage our businessmen, entrepreneurs, manufacturers and investors to continue striving to do more in their respective fields; and we are also striving to ensure that the fruits of any development trickle down to the people at the grass roots level.
We have inherited a very difficult economic situation where the public is facing more hardships than it has in recent history. This was due to external and internal factors of the past year. On the external front the most difficult issues were;
The doubling of international oil prices from around $ 68 per barrel to $ 145 per barrel during the year.
The increase in international prices of food items that Pakistan needed to import during the year, especially wheat and edible oil.
The slow down in the US economy and turmoil in the international financial markets thereby reducing external demand for our exports.
On the internal front also we had more than our share of difficulties. This was a year of constant political instability sparked off by the judicial crisis in March 2007. The law and order situation also assumed dangerous proportions in the form of the Lal Masjid affair, the increase in frequency and lethality of terrorist bomb blasts and of course the state of militancy and insurgency in FATA and the NWFP. The saddest occurrence in this regard was the martyrdom of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto on 27th December 2007 which cast a long and dark shadow on the economic and political health of the country. It is estimated that due to disturbances in the five days following this tragic event the loss of our export revenues was of the order of $200 million.
Other challenges on the internal front that made it difficult for exporters to fulfill their export orders on time and at a competitive price during the year included:-
Power shortages and resultant load shedding of electricity and natural gas.
Impact of monetary and exchange rate policies, plus supply side constraints.
Rising costs of salary bills and raw material, particularly raw cotton.
Increasing competition in export markets,
Travel advisories of foreign governments discouraged importers to continue sourcing from Pakistan.
Long term structural issues such as labour skills deficiency and poor infrastructure.
Not surprisingly and as a result of these multiple negative factors our economic growth rate dropped to 5.8% as compared to 6.8% last year. This slow down was particularly evident in the commodity producing sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing with serious implications for exports. In fact agriculture overall grew by only 1.5% as against 3.7% last year and in the two major crops i.e. cotton and wheat there was a negative growth of 9.3% and 6.6% respectively. The manufacturing sector also saw the weakest growth in a decade, since overall it grew by 5.4% as compared to 8.1% last year. Large scale manufacturing was even more dismal since it registered a growth of only 4.8% as compared to 8.6% last year.
What is remarkable however is that despite this gloomy picture on the production and supply side, and contrary to most other economic trends in the country, the export sector has performed well and registered a growth of 13.23% during the year 2007-08. This is indeed an amazing achievement by our business community who faced the sea of challenges enumerated earlier. Our exporters therefore deserve the gratitude and admiration of the nation for their dedication, resilience, patriotism, perseverance and contribution to the cause of the nation and the economy. Credit is also due to the personnel of the Ministry of Commerce and its attached organizations for extending their full support to the private sector to facilitate them in achieving this national objective.
Export Performance
Last year the Ministry of Commerce was assigned an export target of US $ 19.2 billion, which was indeed ambitious since it was pitched U.S. $ 2.2 billion higher than the US $ 17 billion achieved in 2006-07. I am happy to inform you that the total merchandise exports for the year 2007-08 were $ 19.22 billion, with a net increase between 2006-07 and 2007-08 of $ 2.246 billion which is a record. In addition during the year the export of services to the extent that they have been disaggregated in the national accounts were $ 2.9 billion and defence related exports amounted to $ 63.9 million.
Looking at the performance of various export sectors while comparing the available detailed figures for 11 months i.e for July to May 2007-08 with the same period of the previous year we see an overall increase of $1.755 billion.
Food Group items accounted for $561 million of this increase included rice [$480m], sugar [$72m], fruits [$32m] and fish products [$15m].
Textile group performed poorly since the cumulative exports were $9591.9 million i.e. $245.8 million or 2.5% less than last year. There was a decline in cotton cloth [$128m], cotton yarn [$124m], bed wear [$94m] and ready made garments [$39m]. Some textile items registered growth and they were art silk and synthetic textiles [$81m] and knitwear [$31m].
The 2.5% decrease in the textile group which constitutes a major chunk of about 57% of our total exports has significantly impacted our overall exports growth. Some reasons for this poor performance are that
In the European Union our bed linen exports suffered due to an average anti dumping duty of 5.7%. Moreover our competitors such as Bangladesh, Cambodia and Sri Lanka have duty free access whereas our textiles attract on average a duty of 17-23%. The happy news is that the anti dumping duty will run its course by January-February 2009 and our bed linen exports should pick up after that.
Towels exports have decreased due to higher cotton and yarn prices.
The marketing of our textiles is hampered by visa restrictions for our businessmen and travel advisories preventing buyers coming to Pakistan.
Less emphasis on quality and compliance issues is also hurting our textile exports.
Diversification
Our export growth is hampered due to lack of diversification in export products as well as export markets. In terms of products our exports are concentrated in a few categories such as cotton manufactures and synthetic textiles, leather, rice and sports goods. In the first eleven months of 2007-08, they collectively accounted for around 72.4% of our total exports. In terms of markets also, traditionally 50% of our exports are to only seven countries namely USA, Germany, Japan, UK, Hong Kong, Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Thus past trade policies have consistently tried to promote diversification on both counts through a variety of measures and we are now beginning to see significant progress in this regard.
From the global perspective, Pakistan’s top 200 exported products account for 91% of its exports but these products have only 19% share in the world market. This means that Pakistan does not figure at all in 81% of products traded in the world. In 2006, 5085 products were traded worldwide of which Pakistan only traded in 1365 products. It is encouraging however that the markets in which Pakistan does figure, it is ranked very high in world market shares. For example, in cotton yarn and woven cotton fabrics it is No. 1, while in cotton bed linen, toilet & kitchen linen and cotton knitted shirts it is No. 2 and in rice it is No. 3 in terms of world market shares.
A good trend is the growth in the non traditional category of exports. Some of the non textile items whose export has increased include the petroleum group [$286m], cement [$226m], chemicals and pharmaceuticals [$210m], jewelry [$140m], Leather products [$188m], surgical and medical instruments [$57m]. In the category of “others” the increase in exports during this period was US $ 337 million. Some of the items included in this category are marble, matches, plastic items, wood items, ceramics, tiles and sanitary fixtures and various household commodities. Increase in this category is good evidence of progress in diversification and movement towards export of value added items.
In terms of market diversification in 1998-99 the seven markets I had mentioned earlier accounted for 53.4% of our exports whereas in 2007-08 this share has reduced to around 44.4%. The three regional groupings that are significant from our growth point of view are
If one looks at the trend from 2003-04 to 2006-07 one sees that the growth of exports during this period was around 114% in Latin America, 81% in Africa and 60% in this European group of countries.
This diversification trend is healthy and needs to be sustained, but in the immediate future we cannot afford not to shift our focus from textile exports since they constitute around 57% of our total exports. It is noteworthy however that the share of textile and clothing exports in global trade is 4.5% and Pakistan’s share in global exports of this sector is a mere 2.15%. This indicates that Pakistan is facing fierce competition in this sector from a number of countries. On the other hand new opportunities are emerging since some of our competitors like China are losing their competitive edge due to higher input costs. Therefore our textile producers need to exploit this opportunity by entering into joint ventures with Chinese companies and setting up production facilities in the China Specific Industrial Zones being established in Pakistan.
Annual Imports and Trade Gap
While the Ministry of Commerce works constantly to enhance exports and sets ambitious targets in this regard, the import projection mentioned in the annual trade policy is more of an educated guesstimate based on foreseeable trends. Moreover the Ministry of Commerce cannot actively try to manage the volume of imports since these happen due to circumstances and government requirements arising outside its area of jurisdiction. That notwithstanding the total imports during the year 2007-08 amounted to $ 39.97 billion giving rise to a trade deficit of $ 20.7 billion. The underlying causes for this year’s trade deficit were
In other words around 86% of our import basket consists of machinery, raw material and other essential products such as petroleum and food items making it inelastic. Remaining 14% is made up of transport [6%] and others [8%]. It is noteworthy that import of tea, mobile phones, textile machinery and automobiles [both CBU and CKD] has shown negative growth during the last 11 months.
If one looks at the trend since 2003-04 we see for the first two years exports rising by around $2 billion each year, then in 2006-07 by only around half a billion dollars. Imports on the other hand increased by around $5 billion in 2004-05, by $ 8 billion in 2005-06 and then dipped to register an increase of only $ 2 billion in 2006-07. Thus the year 2006-07 saw a decrease of growth of both imports and exports hence confirming a correlation between higher imports and exports.
This year again the imports compared to last year have increased by $ 9.428 billion whereas exports have also increased by $ 2.246 billion.
Structural Challenges
Our proposed export strategy needs to cope with the current challenges that I have indicated in my introductory remarks, as well as work on minimizing the longer term structural handicaps that we are faced with. Some of these structural challenges relating to both the demand and supply side are:-
a) Our low ranking on the competitiveness scale due to our internal inefficiencies thus making the cost of doing business in Pakistan relatively higher.
b) Poor governance coupled with excessive red tape results in extra costs for producers and exporters.
c) Power supplies are inadequate and a costly input for producers.
d) Infrastructure especially relating to transportation is substandard resulting in extra costs for exporters.
e) High cost of capital.
f) Low reliability of the legal dispute resolution system inhibiting investment and increase in commercial activity.
g) Low productivity of our human resource due to lack of education and skills deficit.
h) Lack of emphasis on quality in production and service provision.
i) Lack of diversification of our export portfolio and over reliance on textiles.
OBJECTIVES
After enumerating some of the constant structural challenges to our exports, I would now like to share with you the objectives we had before us while formulating our trade policy and export strategy. These objectives are:-
Export Strategy
The Export Strategy for 2008-09 has been designed keeping in view the aforementioned objectives and its salient features are
We are also facing stress in this current year due to the large trade gap of US $ 20.77 billion, and our strategy to enhance exports is the best method to address this problem.
Export Measures
In accordance with the strategy that I have just outlined, a number of new policy measures have been formulated to implement the strategy. These measures are as follows:-
DTRE Export of Regenerated PSF
There is a potential to manufacture and export regenerated Polyester Staple Fiber (PSF) by using PET bottle scrap, the import of which is allowed subject to non hazardous certification.
There is an anomaly in the DTRE scheme where in temporary importation of the same is not allowed.
It is proposed to allow the temporary import of PET bottle scrap for manufacture and export of PSF in the DTRE scheme, subject to non hazardous certification.
Biotech drugs is a high tech value added sub sector of Pharmaceuticals which needs to be encouraged. It would be desirable to accord pioneer industry status to this sub sector and also allow it tax incentives. A committee comprising Ministries of Commerce, Health, Finance and FBR will work out a detailed proposal for a decision in this regard by the Government.
In this regard there will be a special focus on promotion of various activities related to the Prime Minister’s Programme of “ One Village- One Product”
Currently exporters setting up slaughter houses are facilitated by the Export Development Fund picking up the first 6% of the mark up on investment financing. It has now been decided to enhance this facility and the EDF will therefore pick up the first 8% or 50 % of the mark up which ever is lesser.
Automobile Sector
Exporters are allowed to send US$ 25,000 worth of samples to foreign buyers. Since automobiles have higher unit value therefore it has now been decided to increase the limit to $ 50,000 in the case of automobiles.
Federal Export Promotion Board
Since as I have already mentioned exports can only increase significantly if all government policies are well coordinated towards this objective. Therefore it has been decided that the Federal Export Promotion Board chaired by the Prime Minister will be activated and reconstituted to provide the effective and high level coordination required for this purpose.
It has been decided to revisit the working and structure of TDAP so as to make it more responsive to the exporter’s needs. In the near future necessary changes including warranted amendments in the TDAP Act will be undertaken for this purpose.
Trade Diplomacy
Import Strategy
This year our import strategy besides addressing the problem of the large trade gap is also designed to facilitate those imports that will serve to increase the competitiveness of our exports and therefore increase their over all quantum and value. Those imports will also need to be facilitated that are people centric and ensure sufficient supply of essential commodities such as foodstuffs to the common man at affordable prices.
Import Measures
In keeping with this import strategy the following new import measures will be implemented during the year.
At present, buses not older than 3 years are permissible for import under the TR scheme. It has now been decided to allow import of buses which are not more than 05 years old under the same scheme. This facility will help expatriate returning Pakistanis with limited means to create an economic opportunity for themselves as well as ease the shortage of such buses on inter city routes.
It has been decided to allow import of cement bulker semi trailers, without prime movers in secondhand / used condition to cement manufacturers for transportation of bulk cement subject to the condition that they will not be older than 10 years.
In last year’s trade policy, prime movers not older than 4 years, which were Euro-III compliant, were made importable for a period of one year. i.e. 2007-08. This facility was only available to registered transport companies and established fleet operators operating at least 25 prime movers in their name. Last year however this facility was not utilized. It has now been decided to extend this facility for 2008-09 and enhance it by relaxing the age limit to 5 years and reducing the minimum fleet requirement to 15 prime movers.
In order to reduce cost of raw material imports and thereby make our export products more competitive the import of Job lot & Stock lots of raw material, which attracts duty up to 5%, would now be allowed
Stainless Steel and Cotton Yarn
Academic, Scientific and Professional Books
Used and old static road rollers which are not manufactured locally are importable without restriction of capacity and age by commercial importers. In case of a construction company, the limitation is that it should not be older than 10 years and the capacity should not exceed 12 tons.
It has now been decided to remove this anomaly by restricting both categories of importers to the above conditions i.e. these Rollers should not be more than 10 years old and the capacity should not exceed 12 tons.
India is our neighbour and we are gradually liberalizing our bilateral trade. Composite Dialogue process, especially on economic and commercial cooperation has been instrumental in addressing the bilateral issues. We are announcing to enlarge the list of importable items from India, which is based on the requests of our stakeholders. Cheaper raw material sourced from India would make our exports more competitive in international market. Although the list is being issued separately, I may mention that we are allowing import of diesel and fuel oil from India, because it will be cheaper due to the difference in transportation cost. This will also help us to address our global trade deficit.
Import of CNG Buses from India
Customs Duty on the import CNG Buses was brought from 15% to zero in the Budget 2008-09.
In case any Indian manufacturer of CNG buses makes a firm commitment to establish manufacturing of such buses in Pakistan, the Ministry of Commerce may provide special dispensation for import of 10 buses by road via Wahga from each possible investor as test consignments.
Export Target
The export target for 2008-09 has been fixed at US$ 22.10 Billion. This represents a growth of 15% over our last year’s exports.
Conclusion
In conclusion let me say once again that we have economically been through a very difficult year and I have enumerated the various challenges our exporters have faced as a result. It is also true that these challenges are still with us in a large part due to developments in the global economy which continue to impact Pakistan as they do the rest of the world. On the other hand despite this difficult environment we also have some opportunities to which I have alluded earlier. Most importantly we have a very patriotic and resilient exporter community which gives us good grounds for optimism. As far as the Government it is fully resolved to do the utmost possible to facilitate our exporters and producers to come up to the expectations of the people of Pakistan. I am confident that during the coming year we will be able to work together to improve the state of our economy and contribute effectively to poverty alleviation so that our coming generations are assured a bright and prosperous future.
Thank you! Pakistan Paindabad!